The NBA season in underway! One week from now, true diehards will be changing the channel on Yankee-less World Series coverage to a more exciting Celtics/Cheats and Lakers/Rockets opener. Drama and intrigue is at an all-time high, and if the hype lives up to it, could be one of the greatest NBA seasons over the last 20 years.
Although the drama seems to be skewed towards the Right Side of the country, the Left Coast (and yes New Orleans, oddly, is considered to be a Western Conference squad, and in Southwest Division nonetheless...whatever) has a budding superstar, the antithesis to Lebron James, Kevin Durant. And whether or not the youthful exuberance of the OKC Thunder can challenge the Lakers for Western Conference dominance, there is a season to be played and a script to be told.
But before we hit OKC, we first must tackle the Southwest Division. Ready for some BOLD predictions? okay here we go...Predictions. Haha! Joking aside, I'm actually serious:
1) Memphis Grizzlies (LY: 40-42, 4th in the division, 10th in the conference, no playoffs)
"Holy Crap! George are you an idiot??? How can you think that the Grizzlies are going to have the best record in the division?" Now before you start accusing me of smoking some of Beasley's Ganja stash, let me explain myself. They have a secret weapon...Hasheem Thabeet! Obviously I'm kidding.
The youth of this squad makes the Grizzlies a strong force in the west...think Thunder with less Durant, but a much better frontcourt. This team, in most people's eyes, overachieved last year being just two games under .500. Mind you, for a portion of the season they were legitimately competing for a playoff spot until Marc Gasol went down with an injury (and I am very aware of that injury as it affected me on my fantasy team, but no one cares so I'll move on...)
The core genuinely enjoys playing with each other, and with a year under their belts, their chemistry gets just that much stronger. Remember, the Oklahoma City Thunder won just 35 games prior to their breakout year. And I know it's just the preseason, but Mike Conley is looking confident and decisive in the preseason thus far (less Allen Iverson breathing down his neck).
What's amazing to me is that Zach Randolph is looked at as a good "locker room" guy, and Lionel Hollins has seemed to connect with the double-double machine and get him to buy-into the system.
And don't underestimate the Rudy Gay signing. They were able to lock him up with an $80 million dollar contract and solidify a go to scorer for the next few years. He is matured, and from reports seemed to be a sponge in the locker room with Team USA and Mike Krzyzewski. The summer was a time for him to be reminded of what winning is all about, something that he hasn't experienced since his days at Connecticut.
Finally, O.J. Mayo is their crunch-time scorer that isn't phased to take the last shot.
Bottomline, they have all the ingredients to be a competitive team in the west...call me crazy, but that's my BOLD PREDICTION of the season.
Prediction: 52-30, 1st in their division, 4th in conference, 2nd round exit
2) Dallas Mavericks (LY: 55-27, 1st in division, 2nd in conference, first round loss)
I hope Mark Cuban isn't reading this...actually no, I take that back, I HOPE he is reading this!
It's hard to place a typically professional regular season team behind Memphis, but this year, I think they take a step back.
Dirk Nowitzki is just that good to will any team into the playoffs, so I still feel they will accomplish just that. In a close race with Memphis, they will ultimately lose the division by a couple of games.
With a projected starting lineup, when healthy, of Kidd, Beaubois, Butler, Nowitzki, and Chandler, this team, under Carlisle, will make a push once again to finally make real noise in the playoffs. However, their recent postseason play begs to differ.
It's easy to forget that this team was up 2-0 in the Finals just a few years ago, but since then they have been an underachieving postseason team with failures that include choking to the Cheats, first round exits from Golden State and, just last postseason, a first round exit at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs (who were eventually swept out of the playoffs by the Suns in the following round).
Call me a cynic, but I just don't think they are cutthroat enough to be considered one of the ELITE teams.
Prediction: 50-32, 2nd in their division, 6th in conference, first round exit
3) San Antonio Spurs (LY: 50-32, 2nd in division, 7th in conference, 2nd round exit)
The San Antonio Zombies! They just never die. Every year we dismiss them as being too old, too slow. But they seem to always be in the thick of things come playoff time.
The big three of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan are still there, giving them a chance to compete in the playoffs once again IF they can stay healthy. They do have some youth on their side this year with George Hill, Dejuan Blair, and newcomer, internationally hyped big man, Tiago Splitter; Spurs management feels that this combination of age and youth can help preserve their big three come playoff time.
We all know that Popovich can care less about regular season success (aside from just making the playoffs) thus I don't see them going full throttle during the season. Therefore expect to see a lot of the main guys get rest, particularly at the end of the season in order to get the veterans' playoff legs in order.
They'll be there in the playoffs, but all in all, that's about it. They don't need a screen cuz their window of opportunity is shut.
Prediction: 46-36, 3rd in division, 8th in conference, first round exit
4) Houston Rockets (LY: 42-40, 3rd in division, 9th in conference, no playoffs)
The Houston's GM Darel Morey is a stats geek that thinks he has figured out the perfect formula for team success. Besides the trade to get rid of T-Mac, I don't see it translating into postseason success (or even appearance for that matter).
Yao Ming is back and should prove to be valuable in limited capacity (training staff will be holding Ming to a firm 24 minute count). But does this really matter in the grand scheme of things?
The problem with this Rockets team is health. Their two difference makers, Kevin Martin and Yao Ming, and extremely injuring prone and likely to miss a good chunk of games due to their fragility. So do the likes of Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola enough to carry this team into the playoffs in an extremely tough conference? I don't think so.
I like Rick Adelman. I feel like he is a difference maker on the sideline, but he needs reliability in personnel in order to push for the playoffs.
IF Yao Ming can make the most of his limited time AND Kevin Martin can play more than 65% of his games. They might be able to squeeze into the playoffs.
Prediction: 41-41, 4th in division, 11 in conference, no playoffs
5) New Orleans Hornets (LY: 37-45, 5th in division, 11th in conference, no playoffs)
Chris Paul is BACK! Trevor Ariza is IN! Marco Belinelli replaces Stojakovic! Okafor is ready to block some shots!....Intimidated yet? No? Thought so.
Other than Chris Paul's talent, the only other thing I can praise about is Paul's Public Relations person. Unlike Carmelo, he is saying the right things and giving hope to a city that has suffered over the last few years. Let's hope they don't start burning his jersey when he bolts to join Melo in New York after the lockout year...
This team is just BAD. I actually feel bad that Paul has to go through this purgatory. Okafor is one of the least motivated big men who has been cursed with I-just-got-paid-and-now-I'm-gonna-collect-my-spoils-itis. David West is decent, but shouldn't be relied on as a number two guy. Trevor Ariza should feel a little better not having to be counted on as a go-to-scorer, and should see an uptick in efficiency. Marco Beli-who?
The biggest weakness on this team is their bench, and with a less than mediocre starting lineup, that doesn't bode well for an 82 game season.
See ya in the lottery! And good luck Paul! Maybe you and Melo can bunk in a penthouse on 33rd Street.
Prediction: 32-50, 5th in division, 13th in conference, doing Charles Barkley impressions watching TNT's coverage
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